![]() ![]() The odds are relatively high for the 3-month period and are between 50 and 60% on the three-tiered scale for a majority of the state. The three-month outlook for July through September (JAS) is indicating higher chances of above normal temperatures across Washington State. July precipitation is also uncertain, with equal chances (i.e., 33.3% chance of each of the three outcomes) of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation across the whole state. The remainder of the state has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures. The CPC one month temperature outlook for July has increased chances of above normal temperatures for western WA. What does this mean for Washington in the coming months? This is taken into account in the seasonal outlooks below, which also take into consideration the long-term trends and seasonal forecast model output. While El Niño impacts are strongest during the winter, El Niño conditions now do increase our chances of a warmer than normal summer. ENSO models have the odds of El Niño persisting through next winter (December-January-February) at 96%, and the chances that this will be at least a “moderate” strength event are 84% ( ENSO blog). There has been continued warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the atmosphere is now reflecting weak El Niño conditions. ![]() The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on June 8, indicating that El Niño conditions are currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate Outlook What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest? El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Niño ![]()
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